Knowing how these factors work can help you see when heating oil prices may go up or down. This way, you can make smart choices when you buy heating oil.
The heating oil price chart below shows UK heating oil prices from 2011 to 2024. It highlights heating oil price trends over the last ten years.
Heating oil over the last 10 years
Heating oil prices can change a lot during the year. This happens because of factors like global crude oil prices, seasonal demand, and world events.
Homeowners, farmers, businesses, and industries that use heating oil need to understand heating oil price trends. This knowledge helps them manage their budgets better.
Our heating oil price chart shows the prices in the UK from 2011 to 2025. It highlights the changes over the past ten years.
By knowing when prices usually go down and how much it costs to fill your tank based on average prices, you can decide the best time to buy heating oil and save money.
Heating Oil Price Chart
Caveat: The data presented in this graph is based on historical figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The original data reported the price per 1,000 litres and has been recalculated to show the price per litre from this dataset.
Heating Oil Price Trends (2015-2025)
Heating oil prices in the UK have changed a lot in the last 10 years. This is because of different reasons. These include the price of crude oil, exchange rates, seasonal demand, and events in different countries.
Here’s a detailed breakdown:
When Should I Buy Heating Oil?
Heating oil prices often fluctuate based on seasonal demand. The best time to buy heating oil is typically during the warmer months, such as late spring or summer. During this period, demand is generally lower, leading to a reduction in prices.
This trend happens because when temperatures are mild, households and businesses use less heating oil. This lets suppliers lower their rates to keep up their sales.
Why Buy in Summer?
If you buy during the off-peak season, you can get lower prices. This way, your tank will be full and ready before the colder months when prices go up.
Supply and Demand Impact
Heating oil prices tend to increase during the winter as demand rises sharply. Factors like unexpected cold spells or supply disruptions can cause even greater price volatility during this time. By buying early, you reduce the risk of paying premium prices when demand is highest.
Better Delivery Options
By buying heating oil during the summer, often providers are able to offer better and more frequent delivery windows, helping you to manage your levels more effectively.
Avoid Unnecessary Call-Out Charges
When buying heating oil in the summer, you can take advantage of the lower prices, keeping your tank topped up and avoiding any call-out charges required to get your boiler up and running again, should you run out.
Tips for Predicting Price Drops
Use Price Tracking Tools:
Local suppliers (like us!) often provide live price tracking tools that allow you to monitor heating oil prices in real-time. These platforms can help you spot trends and determine the optimal time to buy based on historical and current data.
Government resources like the Office for National Statistics (ONS) or the UK Government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero offer historical data that can indicate typical seasonal trends.
Sign Up for Newsletters:
Many heating oil suppliers offer newsletters or alert services that inform subscribers about price changes, discounts, or special offers. Staying informed through these channels can give you an advantage, allowing you to act quickly when prices drop.
Follow Geopolitical Events:
Heating oil prices are heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, such as OPEC meetings, global conflicts, or natural disasters affecting oil production.
For example, OPEC’s decisions to cut or increase oil production has a direct impact on global crude oil prices, which in turn influences heating oil costs in the UK. Monitoring these events can provide insights into upcoming price changes. Trusted sources like the BBC or government publications can be valuable for staying updated.
Major events like the Ukraine conflict and its impact on global oil supply are examples where geopolitical unrest has led to price spikes. Understanding these dynamics can help you anticipate when prices might rise or fall, allowing you to make informed purchasing decisions.
Predictions for UK Heating Oil Prices (2026-2028)
We think heating oil prices in the UK will change a little over the next four years. They will likely stay between 60 and 90 pence per litre.
The biggest risk factors remain geopolitical tensions and the pace of the green energy transition. A faster shift towards renewables and increased oil supply from conflict resolution could bring prices down. On the other hand, prolonged conflicts or insufficient progress in energy policy could keep price levels higher.
This outlook balances the most likely scenarios based on current information, though unexpected global events could produce rapid shifts.
2026: Moderate Fluctuations (65-90 pence per litre)
Economic Recovery and Green Transition: As global economies continue to recover from post-pandemic challenges, oil demand will likely remain strong. However, with Europe and other regions accelerating their green energy transitions, demand growth may slow down. The UK’s own push for net-zero emissions could reduce domestic heating oil demand, impacting overall pricing.
US Policy and Green Energy Initiatives: If the US government keeps investing in renewable energy, it could help lower the world’s need for oil. This might help make oil prices more stable. Nevertheless, the energy transition is slow, and any major disruptions (such as new environmental regulations or infrastructure projects) could introduce price volatility.
2027: Potential Dip or Spike (60-95 pence per litre)
Geopolitical Uncertainty: If tensions in the Middle East or other oil-producing regions arise, prices may spike again. On the other hand, resolving the Ukraine conflict through diplomacy or reducing tensions could result in more supply from Russia, which might lower prices.
New technology in energy is making renewable sources more efficient. This could soon affect the market in a real way. Growing use of electric heating systems in the UK, with help from government incentives, could decrease the need for heating oil, which might lead to lower prices. However, any transition delays or lack of support could maintain current demand levels.
2028: Long-term Shift (55-85 pence per litre)
New Energy Changes: By 2028, if countries work hard to use more renewable energy like solar, wind, and hydrogen, it could lower the need for oil. This may lead to cheaper heating oil in the long run. Additionally, more countries might adopt carbon taxes or restrictions on fossil fuel use, further driving demand down.
Political Changes and Trade Relations: The global energy landscape will also be influenced by political changes. If the US or big European countries make rules that support more energy independence or invest in renewable energy, the global oil market might change significantly.
Improved trade relations with oil-rich countries, like Iran, could also introduce more supply, stabilising or reducing prices.
Want to learn more about Home Heating Oil? Try out Ultimate Guide to Home Heating Oil, covering everything from the best time of year to buy, to advice on storing your heating oil.